Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.503135 4.150580 4.869763 5.725799 6.714794 7.819267 9.143801
2025-06-29 2.410718 3.240435 4.267514 5.622792 7.353319 9.477180 12.267738
2025-07-06 1.763728 2.644538 3.840585 5.561043 7.945510 11.102355 15.559970
2025-07-13 1.489465 2.447440 3.851873 6.019036 9.226124 13.733027 20.462909
2025-07-20 1.229587 2.196881 3.716814 6.213757 10.128019 15.920748 24.995373
2025-07-27 1.046332 2.016845 3.639767 6.457940 11.104037 18.294220 30.029723
2025-08-03 0.865350 1.795098 3.445460 6.465868 11.685895 20.106026 34.376779
2025-08-10 0.691070 1.542617 3.146080 6.235324 11.823456 21.202125 37.676584
2025-08-17 0.545189 1.308875 2.832876 5.919431 11.753161 21.921334 40.397530
2025-08-24 0.453509 1.164407 2.660419 5.830329 12.061715 23.293778 44.321201
2025-08-31 0.381998 1.046547 2.517977 5.772298 12.410233 24.755437 48.514325
2025-09-07 0.349144 1.011267 2.542131 6.052450 13.437054 27.532460 55.285764
2025-09-14 0.300767 0.927769 2.449588 6.082360 13.989651 29.519224 60.867279
2025-09-21 0.257650 0.847051 2.349033 6.080683 14.480881 31.445487 66.530701
2025-09-28 0.220019 0.771003 2.244699 6.052989 14.911706 33.293170 72.208071
2025-10-05 0.212628 0.781906 2.360781 6.562040 16.574671 37.767596 83.408218
2025-10-12 0.192869 0.749270 2.357025 6.777995 17.603042 41.026630 92.433392
2025-10-19 0.177196 0.725463 2.372565 7.044047 18.775626 44.687537 102.560326
2025-10-26 0.154731 0.671795 2.293724 7.053362 19.342141 47.098750 110.280825
2025-11-02 0.128082 0.594151 2.128430 6.804293 19.250601 48.059673 115.009147
2025-11-09 0.103582 0.515426 1.941668 6.462621 18.881544 48.358533 118.324063
2025-11-16 0.088562 0.469030 1.846711 6.366226 19.124592 50.069814 124.864501
2025-11-23 0.076399 0.430125 1.767719 6.303430 19.446683 51.989969 132.013275